Mathematical modeling of clinical-psychosocial behavior in AIDS epidemiology

Christopher Virgilio Wright, Fayetteville State University


The long-term clinical-psychosocial behavior in an AIDS prevalent population was analyzed using the techniques of mathematical modeling. The groups included in the analysis are: persons in the high risk behavioral group; persons with full-blown AIDS ;persons in the HIV seropositive group that have not yet developed AIDS; persons recruited from the high-risk behavior group as a result of aggressive intervention program (low risk individuals). Epidemiological interactions between the four groups in the model are described by nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equations. Hartman – Grobmann linearization concepts and Linear Algebra techniques are used to study the stability characteristics of the long-term dynamical outcomes of the model. In particular, the Hopf-Andronov-Poincare bifurcation of the model in the neighborhood of the desirable epidemiological outcome is clearly computed and the critical parameters are presented. The results of this research can be used to predict the epidemiological outcomes, such as AIDS persistence in compact and non-compact populations during programmed psychosocial intervention.

Subject Area

Applied Mathematics|Mathematics|Theoretical Mathematics

Recommended Citation

Wright, Christopher Virgilio, "Mathematical modeling of clinical-psychosocial behavior in AIDS epidemiology" (2014). ETD Collection for Fayetteville State University. AAI1581863.