The pace of fertility decline in Iran: Finding from the demographic and health survey

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-1-2007

Abstract

The fertility transition experiences of many countries in Asia have been very slow and stalling. Yet, Iranian fertility rates have shown signs of sharp decline. The recent censuses and surveys, both regional and national, all are consistent with a strong declining trend which started in the later part of 1980s and seem to be continuing into the new century. The Demographic and Health Survey of Iran shows below replacement level fertility for urban areas and a very low fertility level for rural areas. A trend analysis of fertility levels suggests an unprecedented pace of fertility transition for Iran. Following Casterline (2001) we attempt to theorize about the cause of fast paced fertility transition. We conclude that the strong emerging economic aspirations among all families in all classes and communities, the high actual and perceptual level of child survival, and very low social and economic cost of birth control have been behind the speed of fertility transition in the Islamic Republic of Iran. We submit that the high economic aspirations of families will not only continue but will shift to higher levels among all classes and especially among the generations entering marriage in the coming years. The strong economic aspiration will curtail their desire for more than one child once they are married. Hence a strong public family planning program must continue to provide birth control supplies and services with low social and economic cost. Any effort to reduce the public support of family planning program will result in socially undesirable consequences such as an increase in abortion.

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